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Exponential Smoothing Models for Prediction of Solar Irradiance

Vijaya Margaret, Jeenu Jose

Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its varying nature an efficient use will require reliable forecasting of solar power. This paper describes the exponential smoothing model used to predict solar irradiance for a short period of time. The model enables the prediction of solar irradiance in minute values over a day. Here an exponential smoothing model is used and a plot is obtained for solar irradiance as function of time. To validate the result of the forecast, a comparative analysis using holt winter’s models is performed on the same data. The exponential smoothing model gives better results than the regression models.